Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s bold military gamble in the Middle East may be yielding early dividends, as tentative signs of de-escalation emerge between Israel and Iran. After weeks of rising tensions, missile exchanges, and nuclear threats, both countries appear to be pausing their fire — at least temporarily — following a series of dramatic U.S. airstrikes authorized by Trump last week.
U.S. forces executed pinpoint strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear installations, including the heavily guarded Fordow and Natanz locations, on June 21. The operation, according to the White House, was a “decisive strike” meant to stop Iran’s swift nuclear development. Trump referred to the mission as a “vital measure to protect peace through strength” when he returned to the White House in January.
While the immediate aftermath saw Iran respond with limited missile attacks on U.S. positions in the Gulf and rocket fire toward Israeli territory, Tehran’s countermeasures were widely viewed as symbolic and calculated to avoid a full-scale war. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran “will hold fire” if Israel does the same — signaling the potential for a broader ceasefire.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have neither confirmed nor denied accepting the terms of any formal ceasefire. However, military activity in southern Lebanon, Gaza, and the Golan Heights has decreased significantly over the past 48 hours, fueling speculation that a temporary truce may be taking shape.
Markets have already responded to the shift. Global oil prices dipped over 3% after the announcement, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher Monday morning as investor fears of a wider regional conflict eased.
Still, many analysts caution that the situation remains precarious.
“Trump’s airstrikes appear to have shocked both Iran and Israel into a brief pause, but the underlying tensions haven’t gone away,” said Dr. Elaine Matthison, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If Iran’s nuclear capabilities are merely delayed — not dismantled — this calm won’t last long.”
The unilateral nature of the strikes and the absence of international consultation, according to critics, may have long-term diplomatic repercussions, especially with the UN and European allies.
For now, however, Trump is framing the episode as a major win.
“Peace through strength works. Weakness invites chaos,” he said during a televised address from Mar-a-Lago. “We hit hard. We hit smart. And now, there’s quiet. That’s leadership.”
As Iran, Israel, and U.S. envoys reportedly begin indirect talks behind closed doors, the world watches closely. Whether Trump’s high-stakes gamble turns into a strategic success — or a temporary pause before the next escalation — remains to be seen.
